The life cycles of most organisms are relatively fixed in time and are often strongly determined by climatological factors such as temperature and precipitation (water avail- ability). When these environmental conditions change, many phases in the life cycles of most plants and animals are affected, such as the timing of (de)foliation, leaf-burst and flowering, the timing of seed-setting and ripening, the length of the growing (or breeding) season, growth and the timing of migration. Changes in phenology, in turn, may influence the competitive power of the species in question. Each species will respond individually and within its area of distribution the changes in phenology will not be the same for each site, since the changes in climate will differ for each region and because many species behave pheno- logically differently at their limits compared to the centre of their distribution.
If climate change is taking place, then changes in phe- nology should already be detectable since, as earlier studies have shown (e.g. Erkamo, 1953) phenological ‘events’ such as foliation, blossoming, fruit formation and ripening respond to climate changes within a relatively short period of time (within a few years or, at most, a few decades). Some examples of phenological responses to climate change are presented below.
Onset of growth and flowering. Warmer conditions in spring may lead to an earlier onset of growth and flowering. For species with a wide distribution this change will not be the same over the whole range, as the change in temperature will not be the same over the whole area (see next section for some examples). In aquatic plants in particular, growth may be effected, e.g. Elodea canadensis, Potamogeton pectinatus and Ceratophyllum demersum (Brock & van Vierssen, 1992).
Reproduction. Earlier emergence and a longer grow- ing season may enhance seed production as well as seed viability of many plant species. This, in turn, may lead to an increase in abundance and/or expansion of the range of those species. Especially species with several life cycles per year (e.g. weedy species, aphids) will be favoured by the expected increase in temperature and lengthening of the growing/breeding season. The number of generations may increase and thus lead to an increase in seed-capital and offspring.
Many weedy plant species are rather invasive (for in- stance Stellaria media, Poa annua, Senecio vulgaris and Capsella bursa-pastoris), and therefore weed problems may arise or become worse (Ketner, 1990a). On the otherhand, certain short-lived species may have greater difficulties in setting seed under extreme circumstances: they may decrease in abundance and even become sparse, or will be outcompeted. For perennials the situation is more complex, as they can often survive unfavourable periods vegetatively.
Frogspawning and egglaying are examples of processes in animal life cycles which may be affected by climate change and, of course, insect plagues may increase, both within the present range of occurrence and in newly in- vaded areas.
- two approaches to information like this;
- take the bio indicator as the trace evidenced, find ways to make the information accessible by a public by aesthetic means … maybe even participatory means (ie; they have to have a way to collect and collate the informant’s, not just perceive it (this is a discussion of forums, displays and embodiment)
- take the possibilities of the future of this trace, how it will become much more exaggerated in the future to make more drastic design objects that are also aesthetic but are autographic of a ‘climate crisis possibility space’
‘ ‘ecological information delivery mode’ has a certain flavour, a certain style – it happens in a certain ‘possibly space’. One of my jobs as a Humanities scholar is to try to feel out these possibtily spaces, especially if/when we’re not every aware of them. Possibly spaces that aren’t very obvious to us can exert all kinds of control over us, and we may not want this kinds of control – or at any rate, it might be nice to get a sense of what the coordinates are.’ p 7
- so maybe I want to create a new possibly space. not one of an information dump… but one that reimagines what ‘we’ can ‘do’ in that possibly space. By receiving factoids there is little participation other than the PTSD trauma of these truthy prospects. All that is being ‘done’ is panic. This new possibility space proposes not a representing, nor visualising, but doing. It is no longer about living ecological information but about the potential of living with ecology. A merging of the experience of perceiving the the temporal landscape of the climate crisis with ones participation within it.
- for examples
- an autographic visualisation of the bio indicating frog spawn may be a calendar of its laying cycle; where its most likely to appear and when – dependant on a given location. It could act as a sort of participatory bio-tracking information that makes the trace of a healthy ecosystem visible or not depending if the evidence is there.
- under the example of speculative autography; the calendar would be be autographic of how the frag pollution may drastically be effected by the climate. frog spawning may happen at vastly different times and in much reduced amounts and therefore a colander to identify these habits would be different. it would be non-autographic of the reality of current frog populations but would be a self inscription of the possible future. An imagined possibly space.
- another example might be
- autographic visualisation of ground level ozone pollution may be the use of tobacco plants. having these plants in ambient displays around the city or in specific gardens for communities to visit may be a current way to make the public participate in the trace of pollution
- under an example of speculative autographolgy; a system of varying degrees of ventilated masks correlate to different taboo plant appearances to infer the future of drastic air condition, to the point where marks are needed to be warn on bad days. This speculation could also manifest in indexical design strategies such as keys that link the appearance of tobacco plants to symbol of human movement such as – only go outside for 5 hours maximum, only go outside for 1 hour, don’t leave the house – all represented in futurable semiotics…
- the main difference in these methodologies is their displays. the first is to be engaged with by current populations where as the speculative approach is to be experiences through an exterior forum.
- the interesting thing about the speculative approach is that it no longer needs to be directly autographic of material traces but can now be purely autographic of a speculative future.
- as with the example of the frog spawn; it may be speculated that due to soil erosion and over farming or an over exploitation of a given agriculture, a specific bread of frog is incredible endangered and therefore the visualisation could be a chart of the last 3 habitats in Europe that have the certain frog spawn
THINKING RESEARCH 